剛剛在網路上提出這觀點, 結果受到一群人說我一定是初學者或學藝不精. 其中說我學藝不精的, 說我不懂道式理論和日線 ( 問題是我文章根本沒提到道式理論的內容. 尤其我完全沒提出日線字眼 ), 所以看來是連閱讀都有障礙的人. 說我是初學者的, 則把基本面 + 財務 + 營收這種 fundamental analysis 當成是技術分析( technical analysis). 而他們說了半天, 還是拿不出統計數據. 網路上果然嘴砲的人多, 只會裝得自己好像很懂. 真正要他們拿點東西出來, 卻是一點內容也沒有.
我們再來看看兩位投資大師的話:
1. Peter Linch : Charts are great for predicting the past.
2. Warren Buffett : I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer. If past history all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.
看來, 他們必定是 "初學者", 所以才不吃技術分析這套了.
我不是要完全否認技術分析. 一些 均線 量能 的分析, "經驗" 中偶爾還是可以增加判斷準度. 但是有科學統計數據支持嗎? 沒有. 和占星學沒兩樣. 占星學的人也喜歡說別人研究不深, 但是永遠提不出一個統計數據.
再來, 我們來看看一些數據....
Technical Analysis Around the World
Ben R. Marshall
Massey University - Department of Economics and Finance
Rochester H. Cahan
Macquarie Capital (USA)
Jared Cahan
Macquarie Bank Ltd
January 2010
Abstract:
Technical analysis is not consistently profitable in the 49 countries that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that technical analysis compliments other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation.
技術分析果然只是信仰. 只不過, 信仰總是特別迷人. 只可惜這些信徒自稱科學. 就像星座專家總說占星術是統計科學, 卻永遠也看不到統計數據. 有些基督徒說聖經符合科學, 但是中古世紀對科學家的迫害卻直接戳破這謊言. 事後硬掰說是前人解讀聖經錯誤, 這和股市技術分析師在事後說得天花亂墜一樣可笑.
